“Some families pass on the tradition of treasure hunting. Some families pass down idealistic libertarianism. Found at the end of the path, though, they both stand – looking down – at a dead end where X marks the spot of their wasted effort.”
When a slogan sounds like a pre-school nursery rhyme, one knows it’s going to be difficult to earn broad-based credibility on the national stage. Such is the life of the freshman senator from Kentucky, Rand Paul. (… and yes, being from Kentucky makes it hard to win on the national stage as well).
As POLITUSIC likes to call him: “The Senator from the Great State of His Father’s Shadow”, Rand Paul, like Marco Rubio, is getting his name thrown around in the political media arena as a possible presidential contender in 2016.
Magazines, websites, radio hosts, newspapers, and cable news ask daily, “Who will lead the Republican Party?” In response to the questions, Senator Paul has been testing the waters while speaking at all of the obligatory venues, he’s been experimenting with non-committal policy positions to see how far he can expand a voter base, and lord knows he’ll inherit his father’s campaign infrastructure… he’s trying to show the media that he’s a presidential contender.
But the real question is: does Rand Paul have a chance in 2016? If he can’t win a few primaries in 2016 (clear, vote-based wins; not delegate infiltration-style like daddy does), then running, or even the occasional well-covered filibuster don’t matter. Does Rand Paul really have a chance to win in 2016?
Uh… no… Hell, no.
The Republican Primary Process is a Melodrama
We will never forget the republican primary marathon (or Roman gladiator extravaganza) of the 2011 / 2012 presidential election. The republican debates were the best thing on TV! We witnessed how the Republican Party – due in part to its fractured state between Small Government, Big Religion, Big Gun, and any number of other pockets within Republicanland – loves to create a sideshow when it comes to how they pick their nominee. Iowa takes place in tents at a fair with fried food and petting zoos… it literally is a sideshow.
Moreover, the republican base is base in that it cannot get enough political bashing on its hot dog. It’s like NASCAR, really. As such, that’s what presidential primaries are: bashing and crashing into other side. It makes the republican base feel good. It makes them cheer and sneer. Some even leer and jeer (and deer steer for the hills when they see all the gun racks… and beer.)
It’s a melodrama.
The political primaries for the Republican Party are more like a melodrama than an election process. Rand Paul has to make it through that melodrama plot line without being washed away by the rain… but the guy with a rhyme never gets the girl. “Stand with Rand” is the ranting character who introduces a subplot, then disappears into the backdrop, or at best becomes the plucky sidekick who has a slight stutter. Rand Paul will have a role to play in the 2016 election, but like his father, he will not win the nomination, nor will the republican establishment take him seriously. They will try to mitigate and eliminate whatever delegates he wins just like they did for his dad in 2012.
Rand Paul is a thorn born from the same Bush as Father Ron. Senator Paul is a messenger – a courier – whose message sounds good to college students and republicans who fancy themselves small government lovers, but that’s all. Rand Paul is no leader, and he cannot win for two reasons: his message it too small for a national tour, and he will never survive the scrutiny involved in national elections.
Rand… once again in the footsteps of his father… will shout his message for as long as he can, but he treats politics as his soapbox, not as a method of governing. Senator Paul doesn’t engage politics because he wants to be a Senator or a President; he “does” politics because the political stage is the most appropriate one for him to deliver his libertarian, melodramatic message. Some families pass on the tradition of treasure hunting. Some families pass down idealistic libertarianism. Found at the end of the path, though, they both stand – looking down – at a dead end where X marks the spot of their wasted effort.
It’s important to note that we do not think Rand Paul is crazy (unlike many extreme right wing republicans with whom he’s forced to align due to the nasty problem of having a two-party system funded by billions of dollars of outside campaign spending). Rand Paul is an run of the mill idealist with a big budget. Idealists, however, are made for things like protesting, writing songs, and writing books. Maybe start a charity or two. Idealists don’t win the republican nomination for president in 2016.
Idealists are not born to lead inside an established political system. They can help foster change from the outside by rallying the masses, but they are incapable of gaining any real power from inside the cogs of the machine. To acquire power on the inside, one has to compromise their ideals. In truth, we hope that Rand Paul never does that. While we rarely agree with how the Paul Family interprets implementing libertarianism, we do like that their DNA is a constant thorn in the side of the establishment – a thorn that helps us keep the two dominate parties a bit more on their toes along the path.
And for that, Senator Paul from the great state of his father’s shadow, we salute you… but we ain’t gonna vote for you.
